Start or Sit - Does Immediately Starting a Rookie Quarterback Stunt Their Development?

The age-old debate: start or sit? Rookie quarterbacks in recent years have been subject to this argument, with fans and media alike theorizing that young passers should begin their careers as a team's backup quarterback to give them extra time to adjust to the NFL.

With the Patriots selecting quarterback Drake Maye with the third overall pick in the 2024 Draft, this debate has been reignited within New England; should Maye, who was widely viewed as a developmental quarterback, begin his NFL career as a backup?

In fact, Maye himself agreed that beginning his NFL career as a backup could be beneficial. When asked at the NFL Combine what his reaction would be if his next team felt it would be best to sit him, Maye stated that sitting is "something that [he] think[s] would be an advantage" before mentioning that there's "always two sides to it." Maye brought up how he believes it could be a "huge help" and worked for Green Bay's Jordan Love, but that there are also instances where a rookie quarterbacks immediately starts and succeeds, such as with Houston's C.J. Stroud.

With the significance of this debate, let's take a statistical look at each side of the spectrum for first-round quarterbacks in the past decade, divvied up between immediate-starters and those who had to wait before it was their time to shine.

Jun 12, 2024; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) and quarterback Jacoby Brissett (14) throw passes at minicamp at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports / Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports

The Rookie Quarterbacks who Started Their First Game:

In the past ten seasons, twelve first-round quarterbacks have immediately started for their respective teams. These quarterbacks are Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, Sam Darnold, Carson Wentz, Jameis Winston, and Marcus Mariota.

All three first-round quarterbacks in 2023 were immediate starters, in addition to both first-rounders in 2015. On the other hand, every quarterback from the 2022, 2017, and 2014 classes began their careers on the bench.

In their 622 collective NFL games played, the twelve quarterbacks averaged 238 total yards per game and ~1.47 total touchdowns per game.

Despite having zero MVP winners or Super Bowl winning starters, this group has combined for eight Pro Bowl appearances and a singular Second-Team All-Pro nod.

The Quarterbacks who Began on the Bench:

There have been twenty first-round quarterbacks in the past ten years who have begun their career on the bench. These quarterbacks are Kenny Pickett, Trey Lance, Justin Fields, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Jordan Love, Daniel Jones, Dwayne Haskins, Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Mitchell Trubisky, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Jared Goff, Paxton Lynch, Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel, and Teddy Bridgewater.

This group contains a wide range of NFL success, from perennial MVP contenders such as Mahomes, Jackson, and Allen, to signal callers who never truly found their place in the league, with Lynch, Manziel, and Lance.

On average (median), these rookie quarterbacks sat for the first five games of their career, with Allen, Herbert, and Watson sitting for only one game, whereas Jordan Love was a backup for his first three seasons.

In their 1,078 combined games, these quarterbacks averaged ~252.13 total yards per game and ~1.67 total touchdowns per game. Additionally, they have combined for twenty-two Pro Bowls, four First-Team All-Pro selections, three Second-Team All-Pro selections, four MVP awards, and three Super Bowl victories as their team's starter.

Good Things Come to Those who Wait:

Overall, the notion that quarterbacks who begin their careers on the bench will develop better is statistically true. Despite having games towards the beginning of their careers where they played only in garbage-time (and therefore bringing down their career averages), first-round quarterbacks in the past decade who began their careers as backups have averaged approximately 14 more yards per game and .2 more touchdowns per game.

Even after removing quarterbacks who only sat for their first career game (Herbert, Allen, Watson), quarterbacks who began on the bench still averaged more yards and touchdowns per game than the latter.

Additionally, former Patriots quarterback Tom Brady also endorsed having rookie quarterbacks sit, explaining that drafting a rookie to play them immediately is "not a great way to do it" and added how "[he] learned behind Drew [Bledsoe]. Aaron Rodgers sat behind Brett [Favre]. Phillip Rivers sat behind Drew Brees...and Brees sat for a bit...we're almost prematurely forcing guys out there to play and to learn on the fly in order to make the fans happy."

Both groups have their fair share of successful players and busts, and therefore Maye's readiness throughout the preseason should be the main factor in deciding whether or not to have him sit behind Jacoby Brissett.

If the Patriots decide to sit Maye to begin the season, they must fully commit to his development. Quarterbacks who started on the bench and never got the full support of their organization are typically significantly less successful (ex. Lance, Haskins, Lynch, Manziel). Whether it be for a singular game or for the majority of the season, sitting Drake Maye is likely in the Patriots best interest for his future success.